About Me

 

 Jared G Randall

Houlihan Lawrence

100 West Putnam Avenue

Greenwich, CT 06830

Cell:    203-273-1034

Office: 203-869-0700 x40250

email: jrandall@HoulihanLawrence.com

 

 

Sunday
Jun172012

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: June 15th

 

Happy Father's Day to all of the Fathers.  I apologize for the delay in getting this out.  I have been working on setting up my new website as well as reconfiguring this newsletter.  Feel free to check out my website at www.greenwichrealestateguy.com.
 
 The goal for this newsletter has always been to help educate buyers and sellers.  I felt that my previous newsletters were getting too wordy detailing the analysis.  Hence, I have decided to change the format and the statistics to make it more easy to follow.  One of the many incredible aspects of Greenwich is the diversity of Real Estate.  Greenwich has the in-town feel (where you can walk to the Avenue and town),Mid-Country, Back Country (where you can get plenty of land), Riverside and Old Greenwich (walk to schools, and beach), Cos Cob (close to everything), Glenville and Byram (borders New York, good values).  With the diversity of Real Estate, I feel the market ebbs and flows in different price points.  I decided that the best way to show where the market currently is and where it is headed is with four graphs; comparing properties sold monthly vs. the same month in 2010 and 2011, the amount of new listings per month compared to same month in 2010 and 2011, the year to date sold broken out by price point, then the properties available broken down by price point.  
  My belief is this is the easiest way to follow the market.  We will be able to see if the transactions are slowing or gaining on last year, while also being able to see which price points are growing market share and which are declining.  
  Please let me know which format you like better.  Also, if there is any information you would like added, or if you would like me to do a specific analysis for you do not hesitate to contact me.
 
Best,                                                                     
                                                                                  
Jared 
   
Properties Sold
propsold0615

 

  As you can see above the first five months we are just off a little bit vs. last year's properties sold.  The 46 properties sold for June are as of June 15, so we are falling farther behind to try and reach the 120 of 2011.  Currently, we are trending more at June of 2010's pace where we were at 86 properties sold. 

 

New Listings
newlistings0615
I feel this is the chart that most exemplifies where the market is currently.  If you compare this to the above properties sold graph, it shows the amount of inventory being added vs the amount being sold.  As you can see in the properties sold chart we are a couple of percentage points off of last year's properties sold.  However, looking at the new listings we can see that we are continually outnumbering the amount of new listings from last year and the year before.  Hence, proving we are adding supply with the demand staying constant.
Year to Date Sold
ytdsold0615

 

 This chart shows us the breakdown of the 256 properties sold year to date.  Of the 256 properties sold, 145 or 56.6% percent are between 0-$1.5M.  However, when you cross reference that with the chart below on where the inventory is you see a different story.

 

Year to Date Available
ytdavail0615

The above chart breaks down the available properties broken into the same price segments as the properties sold.  One can see the true disproportion in certain price points.  My opinion of these two charts are that even though we have more supply entering than the demand, the under $2M range has some legs to it.  There are 357 available properties in that segment, and we have sold 180 ytd. In essence, if no other properties came on the market under $2M and we had the same volume we have had ytd, it would take 12 months to sell through.  However, if we look at the $4M-$5M range we have had 8 properties sold ytd, and currently have 54 available properties.  That sale cycle would be approximately 36 months.  In summary, I feel the value in the current market is if one could jump price points.  The best place to be would be to sell in the under $2M range and buy over $2M. 

Open Houses June 17
  
There are only three open houses with Sunday being Father's Day.  Enjoy the weekend.
 
Address Town Price Time Broker
49 S Water St #21 Greenwich $299K 1-3 PM Raveis
25 Old Church Rd Greenwich $1.2995M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr
11 Club Rd Riverside $7.775M 1-4 PM Prudential
  
Mortgage Information
 

The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of HSBC and Iliad Estrada or Ct. Home Mortgage.

 

Jeff's rates can be found at:

 

 http://www.us.hsbc.com/1/2/3/personal/home-loans 

 

Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181.

 

Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202.

 

CT Mortgage Rates

Product

Interest Rates

Annual Percentage Rate

15 YR Fixed Conforming

2.750%

2.990%

30 YR Fixed Conforming

3.500%

3.640%

30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo

n/a

n/a

30 YR  Fixed Jumbo

3.990%

4.116%

5/1 YR ARM Conforming

2.500%

3.169%

5/1 YR ARM Jumbo

2.375%

3.104%

10/1 YR ARM Jumbo

3.375%

3.453%

 

 

 

Tuesday
Jun122012

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: June 8

Good morning.  The mortgage rates have been updated in the lower right hand corner.  I cannot believe how low they are.  I continue to hear about the difficulties in the standards of lending so if refinancing or buying make sure you have all of your i's dotted and t's crossed. 

As I mentioned last week June is the big test to see if this market is picking up at all.  In 2011 there were 120 Single family homes sold with the next biggest month in 2011 being May with 70.  So, what happens this month will go a long way to seeing if we can continue to stay close to 2011's pace.  Below, is more detail.

The average sale price vs list price  and average days on market were as follows for April:

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP

Riverside          92.5             154       1.051M

Old Greenwich 92.9             137       1.823M

Greenwich        92                252        3.25M

Cos Cob           95                261       1.23M

 

Total                  92.6             214        2.25M

 

The year to date as of May 22,2012 is as follows:

 

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP  

Riverside          93.4            129      1.87M

Old Greenwich 93.8            160      2.14M

Greenwich        90.6            230      2.691M

Cos Cob           93.8            227      1.27M

 

Total                  92.1            198       2.262M

 

*All prices rounded up or down to nearest hundred thousand.

 

In June of 2011 there were 120 Single Family and Condos sold.  105 single family homes and 15 condos.  In the first week of June we had 24 close.  20 single family homes and 4 condos. They were as follows:

 

$0-$500K=     2 properties

$500-$1M=    10 properties (1 at 500K)

$1M-$1.5M=   4 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   3 properties

$2M-$3M=      0 properties 

$3M-$4M=      0 properties

$4m-$5m=      2 properties

$5m-$7.5M=   2 properties (1 at 5M)

$7.5M-$10M= 0 properties 

$10M and up= 0 properties    

 

For the first week of the month a good amount of activity. 

 

In last week's newsletter we had 110 properties executed contract (meaning all contingencies have been met, awaiting close). As of today the first day of June we have 117, which is a great sign for June.  They were as follows:

 

$0-$500K=      4 properties

$500-$1M=     25 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   23 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   16 properties (2 at 1.5M)

$2M-$3M=      21 properties

$3M-$4M=      15 properties

$4M-$5M=       3 properties

$5M-$7.5M=    2 properties

$7.5M-$10M=  1 property

$10M+=            5 properties

*note executed prices are based on most current list price 

We have had 114 accepted offers.  The price ranges for the Accepted Offers and Contingent Contracts were as follows:

 

$0-$500K=     13 properties

$500-$1M=     48 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   13 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   16 properties

$2M-$3M=      11 properties

$3M-$4M=        4 properties

$4M-$5M=        4 properties

$5M-$7.5M=     3 properties

$7.5M-$10M=   1 property

$10M+=             1 property

**All information from Greenwich MLS

 

Tuesday
Jun122012

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: June 1

I hope  everyone enjoyed their long weekend.  It looks as if we had a nice push in the last week of the month to make May of 2012 similar to May of 2011.  The big test will be June as in 2011 this was by far the biggest month with 120 Single Family Homes and Condos selling.  The good sign in the information below is that even with the number of properties closing in the last week we still have the same amount of properties in Executed Contract, Accepted Offer, and Contingent Contract.  Hopefully pushing us to a strong June.  Below, is more detail 

 I found an interesting article I thought I would share about how incredibly low interest rates are today.

5th Straight Week of Record Lows

 

The average sale price vs list price  and average days on market were as follows for April:

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP

Riverside          92.5             154       1.051M

Old Greenwich 92.9             137       1.823M

Greenwich        92                252        3.25M

Cos Cob           95                261       1.23M

Total                  92.6             214        2.25M

 

The year to date as of May 22,2012 is as follows: 

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP  

Riverside          93.4            129      1.87M

Old Greenwich 93.8            160      2.14M

Greenwich        90.6            230      2.691M

Cos Cob           93.8            227      1.27M

 

Total                  92.1            198       2.262M 

*All prices rounded up or down to nearest hundred thousand.

In May of 2011 there were 70 Single Family and Condos sold.  57 single family homes and 13 condos.  In May of 2012 we had 67 Single Family and Condos sold.  56 single family homes and 11 condos. They were as follows: 

$0-$500K=     4 properties

$500-$1M=    25 properties (1 at 500K)

$1M-$1.5M=   9 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   12 properties (1 at 1.5M)

$2M-$3M=      8 properties  (1 at 2M)

$3M-$4M=      2 properties

$4m-$5m=      2 properties (1 at 4M) 

$5m-$7.5M=   3 properties (5M)

$7.5M-$10M= 0 properties 

$10M and up= 2 properties    

With the big push of houses closing at the end of the month, we came extremely close to hitting the same numbers of May 2011. 

In last week's newsletter we had 119 properties executed contract (meaning all contingencies have been met, awaiting close). As of today the first day of June we have 110, which is a great sign for June.  They were as follows:

 

$0-$500K=      3 properties

$500-$1M=     24 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   20 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   17 properties (2 at 1.5M)

$2M-$3M=      19 properties

$3M-$4M=      13 properties

$4M-$5M=       4 properties

$5M-$7.5M=    4 properties

$7.5M-$10M=  2 properties

$10M+=            4 properties

*note executed prices are based on most current list price

We have had 117 accepted offers.  The price ranges for the Accepted Offers and Contingent Contracts were as follows:

 

$0-$500K=      13 properties

$500-$1M=      52 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   15 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   12 properties

$2M-$3M=      10 properties

$3M-$4M=        6 properties

$4M-$5M=        3 properties

$5M-$7.5M=     2 properties

$7.5M-$10M=   1 property

$10M+=             2 properties

 **All information from Greenwich MLS

Tuesday
Jun122012

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: May 25

Enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend.  Hopefully, you have some fun plans set up, or are just relaxing with friends and families.  As you will read below last week we did not see as much close as I was hoping.  However, you will see that there is still a tremendous number of properties in Executed Contract, Contingent Contract, and Accepted Offers.  One can still deem a few points from the numbers.  The most gleaming to me is that even though we are relatively slower than last year, there are still pockets of activity.  The $1M-$3M market is holding strong.  Also, the under $1M market is active.  Year to date 46.9% of the properties sold have been between $1M and $3M.  31.8% of the properties have been under one million.

The average sale price vs list price  and average days on market were as follows for April:

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP

Riverside          92.5             154       1.051M

Old Greenwich 92.9             137       1.823M

Greenwich        92                252        3.25M

Cos Cob           95                261       1.23M

 

Total                  92.6             214        2.25M

 

The year to date as of May 22,2012 is as follows:

 

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP  

Riverside          93.4            129      1.87M

Old Greenwich 93.8            160      2.14M

Greenwich        90.6            230      2.691M

Cos Cob           93.8            227      1.27M 

Total                  92.1            198       2.262M 

*All prices rounded up or down to nearest hundred thousand.

In May of 2011 there were 70 Single Family and condos sold.  57 single family homes and 13 condos.  So far this month we have 43 total sold, 36 single family and 7 condos.  They were as follows:

$0-$500K=     3 properties

$500-$1M=    16 properties (1 at 500K)

$1M-$1.5M=   6 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   7 properties (1 at 1.5M)

$2M-$3M=      6 properties  (1 at 2M)

$3M-$4M=      1 property

$4m-$5m=      1 property

$5m-$7.5M=   1 property (5M)

$7.5M-$10M= 0 properties 

$10M and up= 2 properties    

Last week was a little slow as far as closed properties.  Hence, we are falling off of the pace to hit seventy by the end of the month.  The numbers are showing us to this point that we are having a growth in homes on the market with a decrease in properties sold compared to last year.  In my opinion, demonstrating now is a great time to buy.  Especially, with Bond Rates as low as they have been in recent history, leading us to believe rates will continue to stay low.

In last week's newsletter we had 116 properties executed contract (meaning all contingencies have been met, awaiting close). This week we have 119.  They were as follows: 

$0-$500K=      3 properties

$500-$1M=     25 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   21 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   21 properties (1 at 1.5M)

$2M-$3M=      19 properties

$3M-$4M=      12 properties

$4M-$5M=       7 properties

$5M-$7.5M=    4 properties

$7.5M-$10M=  2 properties

$10M+=            5 properties

*note executed prices are based on most current list price

 

One never knows what can happen until the deal is signed, and ownership is transferred.  However, this is still a large number of Executed.  I am still waiting for the Sold numbers to pop with this many Executed properties. 

We have had 117 accepted offers.  The price ranges for the Accepted Offers and Contingent Contracts were as follows 

$0-$500K=      11 properties

$500-$1M=      51 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   15 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   14 properties (1 at $2M)

$2M-$3M=      12 properties

$3M-$4M=        7 properties

$4M-$5M=        1 property

$5M-$7.5M=     4 properties

$7.5M-$10M=   0 properties

$10M+=             2 properties

 

I don't like to read too much into the Accepted offers and Contingent Contracts as with how strict Underwriting guidelines have gotten there are a number of properties that do not make it to sold from this list.  However, again, it does show that their is high volume of negotiations and activity in the market currently. 

 

Tuesday
Jun122012

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: May 18

Hope your Friday is going well, and you are looking forward to a great weekend.  Below you will see the statistics and my viewpoint of the market in Greenwich.  Below that will be a list of the open houses for the weekend.  On the right hand side will be useful mortgage or community information.   If you know someone who would benefit from this information please click on "forward to a friend" on the right.  If you have received this in error feel free to unsubscribe.  Please contact me if you or someone you know is interested in buying or selling real estate.  Also, if there is specific information you would like to see or think it would be good to add to this newsletter please send me an email. 

I will be hosting an Open House at 106 Hunting Ridge Road on Sunday from 1-4.  If you will be out and about stop by and say hello.  This property has beautiful lush landscape, and with over 5.5 acres is serene and private.  The price is 1.879M Below is the link.

106 Hunting Ridge Road

 

The statistics have been updated.  So the average sale price vs list price  and average days on market were as follows for April:

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP

Riverside          92.5             154       1.051M

Old Greenwich 92.9             137       1.823M

Greenwich        92                252        3.25M

Cos Cob           95                261       1.23M

Total                  92.6             214        2.25M

 

The year to date as of May 8,2012 is as follows:

 

Town       %SP/LP    AVG DOM   AVG SP  

Riverside          93.4            129      1.87M

Old Greenwich 93.8            16         2.14M

Greenwich        90.6            230       2.691M

Cos Cob           93.8            227      1.27M

Total                  92.1            198       2.262M

*All prices rounded up or down to nearest hundred thousand.

 

If we look at 2011 as a whole, compared to 2010, we saw relatively the same amount of new listings but we saw growth in the sold properties in March through June.  In 2010 there were 200 properties sold over that time.  In 2011, there were 249 residential properties sold, growth of 24.5%. 

Year to date we are still down in regards to residential properties sold versus this time last year.  In 2011 there were 144 properties sold, while year to date currently we are at 123 properties, down 14.6%.  The interesting aspect is that new listings are up.  Year to date in 2011 there were 376 new listings, while year to date 2012 we have had 465 new listings an increase of 23.7%.  

 

What this tells me is that it will be interesting to see how our volume does in May and June to see if we can get to the numbers of 2011, but also to see if the volume stays consistent after June rather than peetering off like it did in 2011.  

The numbers are showing us to this point that we are having a growth in homes on the market with a decrease in properties sold.  In my opinion, demonstarting now is a great time to buy.  Especially, with Bond Rates as low as they have been in recent history, leading us to believe rates will continue to stay low.

In May of 2011 there were 70 Single Family and condos sold.  57 single family homes and 13 condos.  So far this month we have 36 total sold, 28 single family and 8 condos.  Hence, we are still tracking pretty even with those numbers

They were as follows:

$0-$500K=     3 properties

$500-$1M=    14 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   5 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   6 properties

$2M-$3M=      5 properties

$3M-$4M=      1 property

$4m-$5m=      1 property

$5m-$7.5M=   1 property (5M)

$7.5M-$10M= 0 properties 

$10M and up= 0 properties    

In last week's newsletter we had 20 properties executed contract (meaning all contingencies have been met, awaiting close).  In the past week we have gone from 20 to 116.  Obviously, a tremendous leap in only seven days.

They were as follows:

$0-$500K=      2 properties

$500-$1M=     28 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   18 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   21 properties

$2M-$3M=      17 properties (1 at $2M)

$3M-$4M=      11 properties

$4M-$5M=       7 properties

$5M-$7.5M=    3 properties

$7.5M-$10M=  2 properties

$10M+=            7 properties

*note executed prices are based on most current list price

One never knows what can happen until the deal is signed, and ownership is transferred.  However, this is a huge increase, so we should see the sold numbers move hgher and higher over the next few to several weeks. With this many Executed Contracts pending I will be very intrigued to see how many close as this could be the signal that we are really starting to see movement that buyers are taking advantage of the prices and transactions start to ebb forward.  Also, the activity is very well balanced.  The $1.5M to $2M is seeing high activity and seven properties above the $10M range is impressive as well.

We have had 118 accepted offers in the past ten days.  The price ranges for the 101 Accepted Offers and Contingent Contracts were as follows: 

$0-$500K=      11 properties

$500-$1M=     55 properties

$1M-$1.5M=   16 properties

$1.5M-$2M=   11 properties (1 at $2M)

$2M-$3M=      13 properties

$3M-$4M=        7 properties

$4M-$5M=        1 property

$5M-$7.5M=     4 properties

$7.5M-$10M=   0 properties

$10M+=             2 properties

 I don't like to read too much into the Accepted offers and Contingent Contracts as with how strict Underwriting guidelines have gotten there are a number of properties that do not make it to sold from this list.  However, again, it does show that their is high volume of negotiations and activity in the market currently. 

 To sum it all up, as of April we were still down from last year in properties sold.  So far in May we are tracking last year' May activity.  With the amount of new properties exceeding last year's inventory I still believe we have excess inventory and thus a buyer's market.  However, there are signs that we could make a big push to catching up and exceeding 2011 numbers.

**All information from Greenwich MLS