About Me

 

 Jared G Randall

Houlihan Lawrence

100 West Putnam Avenue

Greenwich, CT 06830

Cell:    203-273-1034

Office: 203-869-0700 x40250

email: jrandall@HoulihanLawrence.com

 

 

Sunday
Dec102017

Greenwich Real Estate Guy's Blog: 2017 3rd Quarter Market Report and November 12th Open House List

The Greenwich Real Estate Guy's Blog: 3rd Quarter Market Report and November 12th Open House List
A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy.

 

Since, the response to the appreciation of the analytics in the 3rd Quarter Report, I am leaving in for another week.  Below is November 12th Open Home List.

Pictured above is 3rd Quarter Market Report.  Our CEO and President put out the following summary:

It's complicated. But good things are happening in our markets. We're finally seeing some fantastic movement in our higher priced properties. Sales of homes priced at more than $5 million increased more than 50 percent compared to 2016. Homes priced above $3 million rose 11 percent. Those price points have been challenging and so the significance should not be underestimated in assessing shifting market conditions. Overall, average home prices rose 21 percent. 
The key for us is to understand what is driving the changes so we can continue to deliver the best results for you, our friends and clients. 
Front and center is the increase in wealth driven by the stock market. The third quarter continued a remarkably consistent trend of market gains. The S&P 500 rose nearly 4 percent. The Dow moved up close to 5 percent. It was the 8th quarter in a row of gains for both indexes. Investors are getting strong and consistent returns. While no one can predict market performance going forward, the reality is that wealth has increased and the mindset of the buyer is better for it. 
Fears of the demise of low interest rates were premature. Rates are still at extremely affordable levels. Wages continue to gradually move higher, and the job market remains tight despite a weaker-than-expected September employment report. The Fed may raise rates as soon as December. But the rate hikes in this cycle have been few and far between. The downside is that without the expected urgency of higher borrowing rates, buyers may still feel time is on their side and may feel they have more freedom to be cautious about locking in a deal. 
We are also closely monitoring the impact of rising New York City prices on demand for Greenwich properties. As new families form and look for homes, that movement amplifies the value offered in our community. 
Here are some trends we are seeing this fall: 
The stark difference between average and median home prices tell us a lot. Average home prices, as mentioned above, rose 19 percent. The average home price was $2,670,809. Contrast that with a gain of just 5.2 percent in median home prices at $1,795,000. This indicates increasing demand at higher price points. 
Overall, single-family home sales dropped sharply by 24 percent in Q3. Total dollar volume declined 7.9 percent. Fewer deals are being made, putting pressure on sellers to be extremely thoughtful in how they initially market their home. Buyers are quick to judge, and don't usually circle back if they passed on a home from the get go. 
Nationally, the number of adjustable rate mortgages is on the rise, likely in response to higher home prices. That points to rate sensitivity, even at the slow pace that mortgage rates have been rising. Risk-averse buyers tend to favor the security of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. But when affordability becomes an issue, they will often take a closer look at ARMs, because of the significantly lower rate. That's a red flag to sellers who may be tempted to price their home too aggressively. Many buyers are already feeling stretched. 
High prices are holding millennials back. Recent data from Zillow showed that only 39 percent of millennials are able to put down the standard recommended 20 percent or higher down payment. The majority of millennials shopping to buy a home, 62 percent, are also looking at rentals. Sellers are not just competing against other sellers, they are also competing against landlords. The price has to be right.

Some regional statistics we'd like to share: 
Greenwich North of the Parkway follows the trend of higher prices, with an average rise of 57 percent. But the area was also on-trend with fewer sales. Of note: the homes that sold, sold faster. Those homes also sold at a greater discount to their listing price. This is another indication that sellers need to be extremely strategic with pricing right out of the gate. 
The numbers weren't as dramatic in Greenwich South of the Highway but the area remains on trend as well. 
Fewer homes were sold, but average prices were higher. By far the most activity year-to-date and year-over-year was seen in entry level homes priced under a million dollars. 
There has been some pickup in demand for high-end homes South of Post Road. The numbers are small at this point, but it is an area we are closely watching. Days on market has moved up, and sales overall are sluggish. A similar sales picture in Cos Cob. Despite average sales prices jumping 25 percent compared to the third quarter of 2016, the number of sales is down. 
The most demand in Riverside remains for homes priced below a million dollars. Average days on market is a concern with an increase of 62 percent. When homes sold, it was at lower prices. The average sale price in the area fell more than 16 percent. That is something sellers must be mindful of when setting prices. Deals don't get done if homes are priced incorrectly. Small tweaks can be very meaningful at these lower price points. 

Old Greenwich continues to benefit from its appeal to buyers leaving New York City. The average sale price skyrocketed 67 percent. But once again, the number of sales fell. The best buyers will remain selective, especially at perceived lofty price levels. 
We can't stress it enough: deals happen with homes priced correctly on day one. This is not a high volume market, and buyers are still often in the driver's seat when it comes to home selection. They can often simply wait for the right deal. 
We look forward to a productive season, and to celebrating a successful 2017 serving our community. 
Stephen Meyers  CEO
Chris Meyers President 

 Below are the 66 open houses this Sunday.
Street Name Area List Price Time Listing Office
70 Riverdale Avenue #803 Greenwich $4.6K 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
409 Stanwich Road Greenwich $4.995K 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
54 Mallard Drive Greenwich $16K 1-4 p.m. BHHS
53 Hillside Road Greenwich $17.5K 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
15 Dale Drive Greenwich $559K 1-4 p.m. Raveis
45 Ettl Lane #401 Greenwich $725K 1-3 p.m. Weichert
6 Hines Lane Riverside $728.8K 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
34 Cambridge Drive Greenwich $749K 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
25 Hollow Wood Lane Greenwich $790K 1-3 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
47 Glen Road Greenwich $998K 1-3 p.m. Sotheby's
38 Amherst Road Riverside $1.029M 1-3 p.m. Raveis
2 Nassau Place #2 Cos Cob $1.095M 1-3 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
55 Valleywood Road Cos Cob $1.129M 1-4 p.m. BHHS
1 Caroline Place Greenwich $1.199M 2-4 p.m. BHHS
85 Bowman Drive Greenwich $1.229M 1-4 p.m. Raveis
53 Edgewater Drive Old Greenwich $1.25M 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
61 Hunt Terrace Greenwich $1.27M 1-3 p.m. Halstead
153 E. Elm Street Greenwich $1.349M 1-4 p.m. Coldwell Banker
56 Londonderry Drive Greenwich $1.445M 1-3 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
151 E. Elm Street Greenwich $1.45M 1-4 p.m. Coldwell Banker
409 Stanwich Road Greenwich $1.45M 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
109 Dingletown Road Greenwich $1.6M 2-4 p.m. Sotheby's
19 Peters Road Riverside $1.645M 1-4 p.m. BHHS
311 Cognewaugh Road Cos Cob $1.675M 1-3 p.m. Sotheby's
7 Old Camp Lane Cos Cob $1.765M 1-3 p.m. Anderson Associates
29 Old Stone Bridge Cos Cob $1.775M 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
34 Ettl Lane Greenwich $1.797M 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
30 Cognewaugh Road Cos Cob $1.875M 1-4 p.m. Raveis
21 Londonderry Drive Greenwich $1.895M 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
7 Welwyn Road Riverside $1.975M 1-4 p.m. Sotheby's
31 Guinea Road Greenwich $1.975M 2-4 p.m. Sotheby's
7 Welwyn Road (land) Riverside $.1975M 1-4 p.m. Sotheby's
633 Steamboat #4 Greenwich $1.995M 2-4 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
64 Butternut Hollow Greenwich $1.995M 2-4:30 p.m. Raveis
33 Ferncliff Road Cos Cob $1.999M 1-3 p.m. Douglas Elliman
35 Welwyn Road Riverside $2.093M 1-3 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
17 Salem Street Cos Cob $2.095M 1-4 p.m. Raveis
17 Overlook Drive Greenwich $2.149M 1-4 p.m. BHHS
13 Anthony Place Riverside $2.295M 2-4 p.m. Coldwell Banker
22 Woodside Drive Greenwich $2.375M 1-4 p.m. BHHS
293 Riversville Road Greenwich $2.45M 1-4 p.m. BHHS
31 Baldwin Farms  Greenwich $2.55M 1-3 p.m. Sotheby's
110 Patterson Avenue Greenwich $2.595M 1-3 p.m. Halstead
80 Milbank Avenue #B Greenwich $2.639M 2-4 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
80 Milbank Avenue #A Greenwich $2.679M 2-4 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
53 Park Avenue Old Greenwich $2.695M 1-3 p.m. BHHS
19 Thunder Mountain Greenwich $2.995M 12-1:30 p.m. Sotheby's
17 Cottontail Road Cos Cob $3.195M 1-3 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
14 Sherwood Farm Greenwich $3.295M 1-3 p.m. Halstead
13 Chieftans Road Greenwich $3.3M 1-4 p.m. Coldwell Banker
84 Connecticut Avenue Greenwich $3.35M 2-4 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
54 Mallard Drive Greenwich $3.495M 1-4 p.m. BHHS
82 Cat Rock Road Cos Cob $3.4999M 1-3 p.m. BHHS
10 Indian Chase Drive Greenwich $3.85M 1-4 p.m. Sotheby's
80 Cat Rock Cos Cob $3.98 1-3 p.m. BHHS
53 Hillside Road Greenwich $3.995M 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
851 Lake Avenue Greenwich $4.195M 3-5 p.m. Coldwell Banker
180 Park Avenue Greenwich $4.25M 2-4 p.m. Houlihan Lawrence
10 Club Road Riverside $4.995M 12:30-2:30 p.m. Centric
5 Crossway  Old Greenwich $5.4M 1-3 p.m. Halstead
38 Dairy Road Greenwich $5.495M 12-4 p.m. Coldwell Banker
280 Round Hill Road Greenwich $5.495M 1-3 p.m. Halstead
200 Old Mill Road Greenwich $5.795M 2-4 p.m. Sotheby's
37 Doubling Road Greenwich $6.395M 1-3 p.m. Coldwell Banker
85 Indian Head Road Riverside $6.75M 2:30-4:30 p.m. Coldwell Banker
38 Parsonage Road Greenwich $7.999M 1-3 p.m. Halstead
9 Oakley Lane Greenwich $10.68M 12-2 p.m. Coldwell Banker
I have paid to open the MLS to you, so feel free to  search properties based on your own parameters or set up a portal to get notifications on a customized search.  For readers that just follow on the Greenwich Patch I will not be posting all entries on the patch.  You can read all postings at  www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog.   
If easier, please subscribe here to receive each post. Please do not hesitate to email (jrandall@houlihanlawrence.com) or call (203-273-1034) if I can assist in any way.
  
Best,                                                                     
                                                                                  
Jared Randall                                                 Join my Mailing List 
Houlihan Lawrence Greenwich                     Search Properties 
cell:  203-273-1034                                         View My Website 
       

 

 

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