Sunday
Dec102017
Greenwich Real Estate Guy's Blog: 2017 3rd Quarter Market Report and November 12th Open House List
The Greenwich Real Estate Guy's Blog: 3rd Quarter Market Report and November 12th Open House List
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A weekly analysis brought to you by Greenwich Real Estate Guy. |
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Since, the response to the appreciation of the analytics in the 3rd Quarter Report, I am leaving in for another week. Below is November 12th Open Home List.
Pictured above is 3rd Quarter Market Report. Our CEO and President put out the following summary:
It's complicated. But good things are happening in our markets. We're finally seeing some fantastic movement in our higher priced properties. Sales of homes priced at more than $5 million increased more than 50 percent compared to 2016. Homes priced above $3 million rose 11 percent. Those price points have been challenging and so the significance should not be underestimated in assessing shifting market conditions. Overall, average home prices rose 21 percent.
The key for us is to understand what is driving the changes so we can continue to deliver the best results for you, our friends and clients.
Front and center is the increase in wealth driven by the stock market. The third quarter continued a remarkably consistent trend of market gains. The S&P 500 rose nearly 4 percent. The Dow moved up close to 5 percent. It was the 8th quarter in a row of gains for both indexes. Investors are getting strong and consistent returns. While no one can predict market performance going forward, the reality is that wealth has increased and the mindset of the buyer is better for it.
Fears of the demise of low interest rates were premature. Rates are still at extremely affordable levels. Wages continue to gradually move higher, and the job market remains tight despite a weaker-than-expected September employment report. The Fed may raise rates as soon as December. But the rate hikes in this cycle have been few and far between. The downside is that without the expected urgency of higher borrowing rates, buyers may still feel time is on their side and may feel they have more freedom to be cautious about locking in a deal.
We are also closely monitoring the impact of rising New York City prices on demand for Greenwich properties. As new families form and look for homes, that movement amplifies the value offered in our community.
Here are some trends we are seeing this fall:
The stark difference between average and median home prices tell us a lot. Average home prices, as mentioned above, rose 19 percent. The average home price was $2,670,809. Contrast that with a gain of just 5.2 percent in median home prices at $1,795,000. This indicates increasing demand at higher price points.
Overall, single-family home sales dropped sharply by 24 percent in Q3. Total dollar volume declined 7.9 percent. Fewer deals are being made, putting pressure on sellers to be extremely thoughtful in how they initially market their home. Buyers are quick to judge, and don't usually circle back if they passed on a home from the get go.
Nationally, the number of adjustable rate mortgages is on the rise, likely in response to higher home prices. That points to rate sensitivity, even at the slow pace that mortgage rates have been rising. Risk-averse buyers tend to favor the security of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. But when affordability becomes an issue, they will often take a closer look at ARMs, because of the significantly lower rate. That's a red flag to sellers who may be tempted to price their home too aggressively. Many buyers are already feeling stretched.
High prices are holding millennials back. Recent data from Zillow showed that only 39 percent of millennials are able to put down the standard recommended 20 percent or higher down payment. The majority of millennials shopping to buy a home, 62 percent, are also looking at rentals. Sellers are not just competing against other sellers, they are also competing against landlords. The price has to be right.
Some regional statistics we'd like to share:
Greenwich North of the Parkway follows the trend of higher prices, with an average rise of 57 percent. But the area was also on-trend with fewer sales. Of note: the homes that sold, sold faster. Those homes also sold at a greater discount to their listing price. This is another indication that sellers need to be extremely strategic with pricing right out of the gate.
The numbers weren't as dramatic in Greenwich South of the Highway but the area remains on trend as well.
Fewer homes were sold, but average prices were higher. By far the most activity year-to-date and year-over-year was seen in entry level homes priced under a million dollars.
There has been some pickup in demand for high-end homes South of Post Road. The numbers are small at this point, but it is an area we are closely watching. Days on market has moved up, and sales overall are sluggish. A similar sales picture in Cos Cob. Despite average sales prices jumping 25 percent compared to the third quarter of 2016, the number of sales is down.
The most demand in Riverside remains for homes priced below a million dollars. Average days on market is a concern with an increase of 62 percent. When homes sold, it was at lower prices. The average sale price in the area fell more than 16 percent. That is something sellers must be mindful of when setting prices. Deals don't get done if homes are priced incorrectly. Small tweaks can be very meaningful at these lower price points.
Old Greenwich continues to benefit from its appeal to buyers leaving New York City. The average sale price skyrocketed 67 percent. But once again, the number of sales fell. The best buyers will remain selective, especially at perceived lofty price levels.
We can't stress it enough: deals happen with homes priced correctly on day one. This is not a high volume market, and buyers are still often in the driver's seat when it comes to home selection. They can often simply wait for the right deal.
We look forward to a productive season, and to celebrating a successful 2017 serving our community.
Stephen Meyers CEO
Chris Meyers President
Below are the 66 open houses this Sunday.
Street Name | Area | List Price | Time | Listing Office |
70 Riverdale Avenue #803 | Greenwich | $4.6K | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
409 Stanwich Road | Greenwich | $4.995K | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
54 Mallard Drive | Greenwich | $16K | 1-4 p.m. | BHHS |
53 Hillside Road | Greenwich | $17.5K | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
15 Dale Drive | Greenwich | $559K | 1-4 p.m. | Raveis |
45 Ettl Lane #401 | Greenwich | $725K | 1-3 p.m. | Weichert |
6 Hines Lane | Riverside | $728.8K | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
34 Cambridge Drive | Greenwich | $749K | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
25 Hollow Wood Lane | Greenwich | $790K | 1-3 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
47 Glen Road | Greenwich | $998K | 1-3 p.m. | Sotheby's |
38 Amherst Road | Riverside | $1.029M | 1-3 p.m. | Raveis |
2 Nassau Place #2 | Cos Cob | $1.095M | 1-3 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
55 Valleywood Road | Cos Cob | $1.129M | 1-4 p.m. | BHHS |
1 Caroline Place | Greenwich | $1.199M | 2-4 p.m. | BHHS |
85 Bowman Drive | Greenwich | $1.229M | 1-4 p.m. | Raveis |
53 Edgewater Drive | Old Greenwich | $1.25M | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
61 Hunt Terrace | Greenwich | $1.27M | 1-3 p.m. | Halstead |
153 E. Elm Street | Greenwich | $1.349M | 1-4 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
56 Londonderry Drive | Greenwich | $1.445M | 1-3 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
151 E. Elm Street | Greenwich | $1.45M | 1-4 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
409 Stanwich Road | Greenwich | $1.45M | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
109 Dingletown Road | Greenwich | $1.6M | 2-4 p.m. | Sotheby's |
19 Peters Road | Riverside | $1.645M | 1-4 p.m. | BHHS |
311 Cognewaugh Road | Cos Cob | $1.675M | 1-3 p.m. | Sotheby's |
7 Old Camp Lane | Cos Cob | $1.765M | 1-3 p.m. | Anderson Associates |
29 Old Stone Bridge | Cos Cob | $1.775M | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
34 Ettl Lane | Greenwich | $1.797M | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
30 Cognewaugh Road | Cos Cob | $1.875M | 1-4 p.m. | Raveis |
21 Londonderry Drive | Greenwich | $1.895M | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
7 Welwyn Road | Riverside | $1.975M | 1-4 p.m. | Sotheby's |
31 Guinea Road | Greenwich | $1.975M | 2-4 p.m. | Sotheby's |
7 Welwyn Road (land) | Riverside | $.1975M | 1-4 p.m. | Sotheby's |
633 Steamboat #4 | Greenwich | $1.995M | 2-4 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
64 Butternut Hollow | Greenwich | $1.995M | 2-4:30 p.m. | Raveis |
33 Ferncliff Road | Cos Cob | $1.999M | 1-3 p.m. | Douglas Elliman |
35 Welwyn Road | Riverside | $2.093M | 1-3 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
17 Salem Street | Cos Cob | $2.095M | 1-4 p.m. | Raveis |
17 Overlook Drive | Greenwich | $2.149M | 1-4 p.m. | BHHS |
13 Anthony Place | Riverside | $2.295M | 2-4 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
22 Woodside Drive | Greenwich | $2.375M | 1-4 p.m. | BHHS |
293 Riversville Road | Greenwich | $2.45M | 1-4 p.m. | BHHS |
31 Baldwin Farms | Greenwich | $2.55M | 1-3 p.m. | Sotheby's |
110 Patterson Avenue | Greenwich | $2.595M | 1-3 p.m. | Halstead |
80 Milbank Avenue #B | Greenwich | $2.639M | 2-4 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
80 Milbank Avenue #A | Greenwich | $2.679M | 2-4 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
53 Park Avenue | Old Greenwich | $2.695M | 1-3 p.m. | BHHS |
19 Thunder Mountain | Greenwich | $2.995M | 12-1:30 p.m. | Sotheby's |
17 Cottontail Road | Cos Cob | $3.195M | 1-3 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
14 Sherwood Farm | Greenwich | $3.295M | 1-3 p.m. | Halstead |
13 Chieftans Road | Greenwich | $3.3M | 1-4 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
84 Connecticut Avenue | Greenwich | $3.35M | 2-4 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
54 Mallard Drive | Greenwich | $3.495M | 1-4 p.m. | BHHS |
82 Cat Rock Road | Cos Cob | $3.4999M | 1-3 p.m. | BHHS |
10 Indian Chase Drive | Greenwich | $3.85M | 1-4 p.m. | Sotheby's |
80 Cat Rock | Cos Cob | $3.98 | 1-3 p.m. | BHHS |
53 Hillside Road | Greenwich | $3.995M | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
851 Lake Avenue | Greenwich | $4.195M | 3-5 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
180 Park Avenue | Greenwich | $4.25M | 2-4 p.m. | Houlihan Lawrence |
10 Club Road | Riverside | $4.995M | 12:30-2:30 p.m. | Centric |
5 Crossway | Old Greenwich | $5.4M | 1-3 p.m. | Halstead |
38 Dairy Road | Greenwich | $5.495M | 12-4 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
280 Round Hill Road | Greenwich | $5.495M | 1-3 p.m. | Halstead |
200 Old Mill Road | Greenwich | $5.795M | 2-4 p.m. | Sotheby's |
37 Doubling Road | Greenwich | $6.395M | 1-3 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
85 Indian Head Road | Riverside | $6.75M | 2:30-4:30 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
38 Parsonage Road | Greenwich | $7.999M | 1-3 p.m. | Halstead |
9 Oakley Lane | Greenwich | $10.68M | 12-2 p.m. | Coldwell Banker |
I have paid to open the MLS to you, so feel free to search properties based on your own parameters or set up a portal to get notifications on a customized search. For readers that just follow on the Greenwich Patch I will not be posting all entries on the patch. You can read all postings at www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog.
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Best,
Jared Randall Join my Mailing List
Houlihan Lawrence Greenwich Search Properties
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