Greenwich Real Estate Guy: Greenwich CT-Residential Analysis and Blog: 09/21/12

Greenwich, CT Residential Real Estate Analysis: September 21tst A weekly analysis brought to you by Jared Randall. www.greenwichrealestateguy.com When I am in the many houses I tour, every now and then, I think to myself, this could be my family's next house.  When I toured the house above I thought to myself this time:  This could be the next house, of the next house, of the next house, of my next house if ever my next house.  This immaculate shore colonial is located at 15 East Point Lane in Old Greenwich.  It is for sale for $7.85M.  This five bedroom four bath home is directly on the water as you can see.  It has a beautiful flow and has breathtaking views of the Sound.  My favorite aspect of this house, you can see if you look really close, is the three windows on the roof.  When you walk up, you can actually open those windows and stand with your head out of the house overlooking the sound.  You feel the crisp air against your face. It is a spectacular house with views from just about every room of the house.  It is listed as .32 acres containing 4,356 s.f. It has been said that the residential real estate market is turning around.  There definitely are examples of this, such as 106 Parsonage Road, which sold for asking at $2.875M and was only on the market for 37 days.  However, understanding where the market is and more importantly where it is heading, one must take an over arching view.  Ultimately looking at the Sold information is already lagging as it typically takes thirty to sixty days to close.  While, looking at new properties that are coming on vs. sold gives us a better idea of Supply vs Demand in my opinion.  With that being said, even though we are hearing the market is turning around, I believe the numbers tell us a different story.  So far this month, we have had an incredible amount of new properties hit the market.  The first three weeks of September has given us ninety nine new listings.  When we scroll back and look at 2010 for the whole month of September there were only 53 new listings.  We have sold 50 properties so far in September which is a little stronger than years past (there were 53 in all of September of 2011, and 46 in 2010).  Hence, when just looking at the properties sold one could assume the market is heating up.  Yet, my belief is when one looks at the sold numbers vs the tremendous amount of new listings one realizes the supply is growing much larger than the growth of the demand.  This is most prevalent when you scroll down and see the current months on average it would take to sell through the properties. Almost completely across the board the months on average have increased due to the influx of inventory.  Only the $2-$3M range, $5M-$7.5M and $10M range remained unchanged or went down.  This is the fluctuation of time in each price range since the end of August. 0-$500K range up 1 week $500K-$1M up 2 weeks $1M-$1.5M- up 6 weeks $1.5M-$2M up 2 weeks $2M-$3M unchanged $3M-$4M up 9 weeks $4M-$5M up 3 weeks $5M-$7.5M down 12 weeks $7.5M-$10M up 12 weeks $10M+ unchanged Please let me know if you would like me to provide specific information or statistics for you. **The information on the featured property and all statistical information is from the Greenwich MLS. **All opinions garnered from the statistics are my own     Properties Sold   As stated above the closings are continually close to last year's number but over the last few months we have been exceeding the 2011 numbers.  So far this month we have had 50 closings.  In 2011 the month of September had 53 closings, and in 2010 there were 46 closings. New Listings Just in the first three weeks we have doubled the amount of new listings there were in September of 2010 and just about already doubled the amount in 2011.  This graph shows the disparity between this year and previous years.    Year to Date Sold As we are getting closer to the end of the year, we would need to see drastic changes in the numbers of one price range to change this chart by any significant amount.  That did not happen so all percentages remained the same. Year to Date Available    In an effort to define the different markets as a good time to buy or sale I believe one needs to look at the months on average it would take to sell through the inventory we have.  We are currently 36 weeks through the year. In the $0-$500K range we have 7.22 months on average to sell through. $500K-$1M  we have 6.98 months.  In the $1M-$1.5M we have 11.52 months. $1.5M-$2M we have 9.587 months. $2M-$3M we have 11.99 months.  $3M-$4M we have 18.72 weeks. $4M-$5M we have 30.78 months. $5M-$7.5M we have 24.78 months. $7.5-$10M we have 36.16 months.  $10M and above we have 37.46 months.   Almost completely across the board the months on average have increased due to the influx of inventory.  Only the $2-$3M range, $5M-$7.5M and $10M range remained unchanged or went down.  This is the fluctuation of time in each price range since the end of August. 0-$500K range up 1 week $500K-$1M up 2 weeks $1M-$1.5M- up 6 weeks $1.5M-$2M up 2 weeks $2M-$3M unchanged $3M-$4M up 9 weeks $4M-$5M up 3 weeks $5M-$7.5M down 12 weeks $7.5M-$10M up 12 weeks $10M+ unchanged   Open Houses September 23th      Below are all of the Greenwich Open Houses for Sunday.  If you click on the link it will take you to the listing.  Enjoy your weekend. Address Town List Price Time Broker 41 Windsor Ln Cos Cob $4.7K/mo 2-4 PM Raveis 8 Fox Hollow Ln Cos Cob $7.9K/mo 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 21 Cat Rock Rd Cos Cob $8K/mo 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 39 Willow Rd Riverside $9.975K/mo 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 55 Will Merry Ln Greenwich $14K/mo 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 351 Pemberwick Rd #110 Greenwich $335K 1-3 PM Raveis 21 Byram Rd Greenwich $399K 1-3 PM Mary & Caruso 292 Hamilton Av Greenwich $409K 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 13 Fletcher Av Greenwich $449K 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 184 Peck Ave #2 Greenwich $455K 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 9 River Rd #405 Cos Cob $469K 2-4 PM Raveis 1 Ocean View Greenwich $519K 1-3 PM Shore & Cntry 60 Valley Rd #A Cos Cob $645K 2-4 PM Raveis 45 Glenville St Greenwich $649K 2-4 PM Prudential 51 Forest Ave #156 Old Greenwich $680K 1-4 PM FF Realty 98 Putnam Park #98 Greenwich $695K 1-4 PM Raveis 60 Valley Rd #B Cos Cob $699.5K 2-4 PM Raveis 11 River Rd #122 Cos Cob $725K 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 133 Lake Av  Greenwich $749K 1-4 PM Prudential 5 Christiano St Greenwich $749K 1-3 PM Sothebys 89 Prospect St Greenwich $799K 1-3 PM Sothebys 297 Guinea Rd Greenwich $849K 1-4 PM Sothebys 349 Riversville Rd Greenwich $995K 1-4 PM Raveis 73 Weaver St #16 Greenwich $999.5K 2-4 PM Halstead 38 Breezemont Av Riverside $1.125M 1-4 PM Sothebys 37 Davenport Ave #4 Greenwich $1.199M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 108 Hillcrest Park Old Greenwich $1.239M 2-4 PM Shore & Cntry 21 Mallard Dr Greenwich $1.25M 12-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 116 Lockwood Rd Riverside $1.275M 2-4 PM Raveis 23 Dorchester Rd Riverside $1.295M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 60 Valley Rd A & B Cos Cob $1.295M 2-4 PM Raveis 16 Norton Ln Old Greenwich $1.495M 1-4 PM Raveis 8 Fox Hollow Ln Cos Cob $1.499M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 21 Cat Rock Rd Cos Cob $1.649M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 30 Stonebrook Ln Cos Cob $1.775M 1-4 PM Raveis 127 Havemeyer Pl Greenwich $1.797M 1-4 PM Raveis 10 Stepping Stone Ln Greenwich $1.825M 1-4 PM Prudential 2 Stanwich Ln Greenwich $1.995M 1-4 PM Round Hill Prtners 120 Milbank Ave Greenwich $2.275M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 20 Cherry Valley Rd Greenwich $2.35M 1-5 PM Raveis 23 Brown House Road Old Greenwich $2.395M 1-4 PM Blue Chip Prop 19 Crescent Rd Riverside $2.695M 2-4 PM Raveis 5 Dawn Harbor Ln Riverside $2.785M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 39 Willow Rd Riverside $2.8M 1-3 PM Coldwell Bnkr 20 Stoney Ridge Ln Riverside $2.849M 2-4 PM Shore & Cntry 35 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $2.85M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 39 Shore Rd Old Greenwich $2.85M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 8 Indian Point Ln Riverside $3.195M 2-4 PM Prudential 530 North St Greenwich $3.195M 1-4 PM Raveis 55 Will Merry Ln Greenwich $3.25M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 27 Chieftans Rd Greenwich $3.595M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 35 Locust Rd Greenwich $3.65M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 125 Cat Rock Rd Cos Cob $4.175M 1-4 PM Higgins Grp 1 Little Cove Ln Old Greenwich $4.195M 1-4 PM Raveis 38 Keofferam Rd Old Greenwich $4.495M 1-4 PM Raveis 487 North St, Lots 2&3 Greenwich $5M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 29 Cliffdale Rd Greenwich $5.495M 2-4 PM Greenwich Fine Prop 487 North St Lot #5&6 Greenwich $6M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 487 North St Lot 1 Greenwich $6.995M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr 487 North St Greenwich $16M 2-4 PM Coldwell Bnkr   Mortgage Information The two individuals I feel most confident about when it comes to home mortgages are Jeff Ihrig of First Republic in the city and Iliad Estrada of Connecticut Home Mortgage. Jeff can be reached at 646-372-5181. Rates below courtesy of Iliad Estrada.  She can be reached at 203-637-6202.    CT Mortgage Rates Product Interest Rates Annual Percentage Rate 15 YR Fixed Conforming 2.625% 2.863% 30 YR Fixed Conforming 3.375% 3.514% 30 Year Fixed Agency  Jumbo n/a n/a 30 YR  Fixed Jumbo 3.990% 4.116% 5/1 YR ARM Conforming 2.250% 3.081% 5/1 YR ARM Jumbo 2.250% 3.060% 10/1 YR ARM Jumbo 3.375% 3.453%  *as of July 15th